Ohioans hope for a rosy future, as politicians hand us promise after promise to distract from reality. We know there is potential, but numbers can present a different picture, and the Ohio Department of Development’s Office of Research took a look at population projections from 2020 to 2050 to show us what the trends really suggest.

Based on today’s rates of fertility, mortality and migration, by 2050 Ohio will lose 675,000 people — 5.7 percent of the population. Population in the United States, meanwhile, is expected to grow by 17.3 percent.

Population stability and growth are predicted in only a few of the state’s 88 counties: Clermont, Delaware, Fairfield, Franklin, Geauga, Greene, Hamilton, Licking, Lorain, Miami, Pickaway, Union, Warren and Wood.

Every other county shows a predicted loss, with many of the worst losses coming along the Ohio River. Morgan County, in the southern part of the state, is expected to have experienced the steepest decline in population by 2050, with a loss of 31.73 percent. On the other hand, Delaware County, located in the central part of the state, is expected to have seen an increase of 53.60 percent.

Should trends hold, our region could see a significant reduction in population during the next 25 years or so. Jefferson County is expected to see a 24.65 percent loss during that period. In Belmont County, meanwhile, the loss is expected to be 26.78 percent, while in Columbiana County the expected loss is 24.82 percent. The projected loss in Harrison County is 24.38 percent, while the projected loss in Carroll County is 15.32 percent.

So, what can be done? The largest part of the reason for population loss is “natural change,” the numeric difference between resident births and resident deaths. The other indicator is migration. The state as a whole is expected to see net migration on the positive side from 2020 through 2050, but in numbers that are small enough not to make much difference for the population total.

It is too simple to say the solution is to develop an economy and communities in which our young people want to stay and raise families — and which attract newcomers. Policymakers aren’t searching for the what, but the how.

Step one is to stop driving people away to search for better jobs, better education, better health care and a generally better quality of life somewhere else. After that, steps two and beyond might just fall into place on their own.

In fact, before we get to step one, perhaps a copy of the Office of Research’s map “Projected 2050 Ohio County Populations, Percent Change 2020 – 2050” should be handed to every elected official in the state so they can get a visual of the consequences for failing to prioritize Ohioans over their own agendas.