Early in the afternoon on Monday, we will have officially entered the fall season.

That will happen at 2:19 p.m.

And once the season officially changes over, we will be moving ever more quickly toward cooler temperatures.

That means thoughts already are starting to turn toward what kind of weather we can expect as we work through Halloween and Thanksgiving and Christmas and New Year’s before we head into the dead of winter.

There are a lot of resources to turn to when it comes to seeing what might lie ahead. Of course, two of the favorites that people have been turning to for centuries are the most famous of the annual publications — the Old Farmer’s and the Farmers’ almanacs.

Both have predicted that our fall will be cooler and dryer than normal, and both are warning that winter in our region will be cold and snowy.

It’s interesting that the publications seem to be in agreement with what we can expect. They’ve both been doing it for a long time — Old Farmer’s since 1792 and Farmers’ since 1818. Both use proprietary formulas that were first devised about the time the publications were founded.

There have been a few tweaks along the way. Those include adjustments made to allow for climate fluctuations, for example, and other environmental changes. There’s also a little bit of technology thrown in.

When you look at what’s used to come up with the forecasts, it seems to be heavy on sunspots, prevailing weather patterns and other things that are happening in the atmosphere.

Despite those complicated formulas, the almanacs have turned in some fairly accurate predictions. For example, for the last winter season, Old Farmer’s had an accuracy rate of 88.9 percent for temperatures and 83.3 percent for precipitation. That adds up, according to the almanac, to an overall accuracy rate of 86.1 percent.

As for Farmers’ … well, they didn’t release any exact figures for the past winter season, but the authors write that they did have a few successes during the last winter season.

So, where does that leave us, especially with a change in season just hours away?

According to Old Farmer’s, we can expect cool temperatures with showers for the remainder of September. That’s about the same forecast offered up by Farmers’

October will see more of the same, the almanacs seem to agree, with cooler temperatures and showers expected for most of the month.

That includes the Halloween forecast, which for Old Farmer’s means showers and warmer temperatures, and for Farmer’s, fair skies with showers likely.

When you look into the fall, the almanacs say we can expect below average temperatures and slightly below average precipitation. Both are predicting an active start to November, with Old Farmer’s saying we’ll have rain and cooler temperatures at the beginning of the month, and Farmers’ predicting a big storm to move through the region from Nov. 1 through Nov. 7, with wet snow possible.

Looking ahead to Thanksgiving, Old Farmer’s says we can expect some isolated showers and chilly temperatures, while Farmers’ is calling for light snow in the Great Lakes region, followed fair skies on Nov. 27.

Once you get into December, both books are saying we can expect very cold and snowy weather.

Old Farmer’s is predicting off-and-on snow from the middle until the end of December. Farmers’ has the same forecast, except it is calling for a little less snow.

Old Farmer’s is calling for snow in the middle of January and the beginning of February –which is about the same forecast Farmers’s offers.

If you look hard enough, you can see that those forecasts are in line with the fall weather forecast issued by AccuWeather at the beginning of August. The State College, Pa.-based private weather forecasting company said the Tri-State Area had some risk of experiencing severe weather during meteorological fall, which runs from September to November. It also predicted our region is not likely to receive its first measurable snowfall through the end of November, even though it says the Great Lakes region as a whole will have the coldest parts of the nation and have the greatest chance of early snow.

The National Weather Service, meanwhile, says our area is leaning toward having above average temperatures and average precipitation during the period.

Trying to figure out what the weather will bring can be a fun exercise, and because of the nature of nature, it’s really an impossible thing to do.

As always, the best guess for our region’s fall and winter forecasts are that it will be chilly to cold in November and December, we’ll see our coldest temperatures of the year during the middle of January, there will be some snow along the way and temperatures will moderate once we get into February.

At any rate, the one thing we can be sure of is that winter will officially arrive at 10:03 a.m. and Dec. 23.

(Gallabrese, a resident of Steubenville, is executive editor of the Herald-Star and The Weirton Daily Times.)