It really came as little surprise to most people who follow Ohio politics when Sherrod Brown announced he was launching a campaign to return to the U.S. Senate.

He’ll be seeking the Democratic nomination to run for the seat that has been held by Jon Husted since January.

Word had leaked about Brown’s decision several days before the official announcement, which brought an end to the speculation about which of the two statewide races the Cleveland resident would enter.

As the state’s most recognizable Democrat, rumors had been spreading for some time that Brown could enter the race for governor or look for a return to the Senate.

He’s the only Democrat so far to announce a run for the 2026 Senate race. It’s unlikely anyone else will step forward to challenge him for the nomination.

That’s the same case with Husted on the Republican side, which means neither candidate should face any meaningful challenge in the May 5 primary and should have a clear path to the Nov. 3, 2026, general election.

That seat will draw a lot of attention to the state in the coming months, as the Republicans will be seeking to hold onto their small majority in the Senate. The seat is seen as so important that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Shumer, the New York Democrat, reportedly invested a great deal of time in convincing Brown to run.

Democrats figure Brown gives the party its best shot at picking up a seat. It will be a long road — Husted, who was serving as lieutenant governor before being tapped to replace J.D. Vance in the Senate after Vance was chosen to be Donald Trump’s vice president, has a strong track record in the state.

Brown was first elected to the Senate in 2006 and served until he was defeated by Republican Bernie Moreno last fall, winning re-election in 2012 and 2018. While he lost to Moreno, Brown was at least able to show that he outperformed Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris across the state.

While Trump was rolling to an 11.2 percent over Harris last fall, Moreno defeated Brown by 3.6 percent.

“I ran ahead of Harris, but I couldn’t run enough ahead of our presidential candidate to win,” Brown told David Skolnick of the (Warren) Tribune Chronicle. “Politics is more that way now. People vote president and vote all the way down (the ticket with the same political party.) That really wasn’t the case 20 years ago.”

He’s right about that — and he’s also seen his popularity across the state fall during that period.

When he was first elected to the Senate in 2006, Brown gained 56.16 percent of the vote to defeat current Gov. Mike DeWine, a two-time Senate incumbent, who had 43.82 percent of the vote. Brown was a solid winner in Jefferson County that year, gaining 61 percent of the vote.

It was the same way across the counties in our region — he earned 66 percent of the vote in Belmont County, 59 percent of the vote in Columbiana and Harrison counties and 56 percent of the vote in Carroll County.

Those numbers looked different in 2012, when Brown earned just 50.7 percent of the statewide vote to defeat Josh Mandel. Brown won 49.6 percent of the vote in Jefferson County, while Mandel had 45.8 percent. The only other county in the region Brown carried that year was Belmont, where he earned 51 percent of the vote. Mandel actually carried 57 percent of the vote in Carroll County and 52 percent of the vote in Harrison and Columbiana counties.

Those regional numbers shifted again in 2018, when Brown defeated Jim Renacci with 53 percent of the statewide vote. Renacci carried Jefferson County with 54 percent of the vote, Carroll County with 68 percent of the vote, Columbiana County with 61 percent of the vote, Harrison County with 57 percent of the vote and Belmont County with 53 percent of the vote.

That all led to the 2024 election, when Moreno carried Jefferson County with 64 percent of the vote, Harrison County with 77 percent of the vote, Carroll County with 70 percent of the vote, Columbiana County with 67 percent of the vote and Belmont County with 66 percent of the vote.

Trump won’t be on the ballot in 2026 — at least his name won’t. But his influence will be: He already has endorsed Husted for the Senate seat and Vivek Ramaswamy for governor. The decision to endorse Ramaswamy in February all but ensured there would be no primary challenge — and led state Attorney General Dave Yost to leave the race in May.

And, no matter who wins Ohio’s Senate seat in 2026, they will only be completing Vance’s term — and the seat will be open again in 2028.

With Brown having chosen to seek the Senate seat, it’s anybody’s guess as to how many candidates will seek the Democratic nomination for governor. Dr. Amy Acton, the state’s former health director, is the only announced candidate, but rumors have started that Tim Ryan might enter the race.

A longtime member of the U.S. House of Representatives, Ryan was defeated by Vance in a bid for a Senate seat in November 2022. He moved from Howland to Plain City in Union County in the central part of the state after losing that race, and is working as a consultant and advocate for a natural gas organization and for a cryptocurrency group.

It all means the political spotlight likely will be shining brightly on Ohio in 2026. The state’s Senate seat is one of 33 that will be on ballots across the country — that list includes the seat held by Republican Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia.

But before 2026 arrives, there is this year’s mid-term election, and that means local voters will have the chance to choose the people whose work has the greatest impacts on their lives — from school board members to township trustees, from city and village councilpeople to mayor. That election will happen Nov. 4.

Politics can change overnight, and there’s no surefire way to be able to see all the possible things that will come up. What we do know, though, is that the next 15 months look like they will be very interesting.

(Gallabrese, a resident of Steubenville, is executive editor of the Herald-Star and The Weirton Daily Times)