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There's one thing you can be sure of anytime there is a special election: The turnout will be lower than you would expect to see in a normally scheduled primary or general election.
That's the case in the special election that was held Tuesday across Ohio's 6th Congressional District.
According to unofficial results from the Ohio Secretary of State's Office, only 59,702 of the 532,899 registered voters across the 11-county district took the time to cast a ballot in the race to select who would fill the remainder of Republican Bill Johnson's term in the House of Representatives that expires at the end of the year. It's a number that represents a turnout of just 11.2 percent.
And while it came as little surprise to those who follow elections that Republican Michael Rulli defeated Democrat Michael Kripchak, what was interesting was the margin of victory, which was a little closer than some had predicted -- Rulli earned 32,627 votes, while Kripchak had 27,062 votes. Looking at the result in a different way, Rulli had 54.65 percent of the vote, while Kripchak had 45.33 percent of the vote.
At right around 9 percent, that's a respectable margin of victory -- but below the 29 percent margin of victory Donald Trump had over Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential race in the district.
Voter turnout in each of the counties that make up the district didn't vary much from the district as a whole. In Jefferson County, 4,959 of the 46,354 registered voters took part in the election. That's a turnout of 10.7 percent, which is a little higher than Bob Gale, executive director of the Jefferson County Board of Elections, had projected.
In Harrison County, 1,114 of the 9,812 registered voters cast a ballot, which works to 11.35 percent. Carroll County, meanwhile, saw 2,226 voters cast a ballot, which equals a turnout of 12.3 percent, and in Belmont County, 4,449 voters cast ballots, a turnout of 10 percent.
Turnout in Monroe County was 935 voters, or 10.07 percent; turnout in Washington County was 4,212 voters, or 9.92 percent; and turnout in Noble County was 680 voters, or 8.49 percent.
Mahoning County had the largest turnout in actual numbers and percentage -- 23,308, or 14.5 percent, and turnout in Columbiana County was 8,414 voters, or 12.9 percent.
Included in the district are parts of two counties -- Stark and Tuscarawas. Turnout in Stark County was 6,524 voters, or 7.7 percent, while turnout in Tuscarawas County was 2,098 voters, or 7.27 percent.
Rulli won in nine of those counties, while Kripchak took Tuscarawas and Mahoning counties.
Special elections can be tough to use as a gauge. Most --like Tuesday's -- just have one issue or race to vote on, which means a large proportion of the turnout feels strongly about one candidate or the other. They also are held during a time of year when elections are not normally held. And, because they often fall in the late spring or summer months, some people who normally would cast a ballot are busy with other things going on in their lives.
Results from Tuesday's vote will be certified on June 27, and Rulli, who had been serving in the state Senate in the 33rd District, which includes Mahoning, Columbiana and Carroll countries, expected to be sworn into his new position on July 25. Once that happens our region will again be represented in the House, something that's been missing since Johnson resigned on Jan. 21 to accept the position of president at Youngstown State University.
As for Tuesday's vote, Rulli said he was not surprised that the race was close and, in fact, he said his campaign has projected a victory in the range of 7 percent to 10 percent. Kripchak, meanwhile told The Associated Press in a written statement that he felt his campaign had outperformed expectations.
Residents of our region won't have to wait long to see the rematch: Rulli and Kripchak will appear again on the Nov. 5 ballot, with the winner of that election moving into a full two-year term that will begin in January.
And, while that election is still several months away, we know that there will be some interesting local races on that ballot, including two of three seats on the Jefferson County board of commissioners. There also will be the U.S. Senate battle between Democrat incumbent Sherrod Brown and Bernie Moreno -- at this point, a race considered to be a toss-up by Inside Elections -- as well as another rematch, the showdown between Joe Biden and Donald Trump for president.
A lot can happen during the next five months or so which can completely change the look of the election.
It's useless to even think about making predictions at this point, but one thing is for certain: Turnout this fall will be much greater than what we saw Tuesday.
(Gallabrese, a resident of Steubenville, is executive editor of the Herald-Star and The Weirton Daily Times.)