Lower birth rates reason for concern
As Ohio’s elected officials continue to hope for economic growth, there’s a factor some may not have considered. According to a report by the Ohio Capital Journal, the Buckeye State’s fertility rates are dropping — standing at 56.2 births per 1,000 women in 2023. That’s an 8.9 percent decrease from the state’s average of 61.9 per 1,000 between 2011 and 2020.
Interestingly, births to mothers younger than 20 and ages 20 to 24 both fell dramatically compared with 2007 data. During that year, 11 percent of the births in Ohio were to women 20 and younger — that number fell to 4.4 percent in 2023. Births to Ohio mothers between the ages of 20 and 24 made up 26.5 percent of the total in 2007 and fell to 19.2 percent in 2023.
“Historically, fertility rates have dipped during economic downturns but tended to recover as conditions improved,” the report reads. It’s an important reminder that politicians can sing “We’re in the Money” all they want, but data about what’s happening for real people will tell the real story.
Nationwide, the problem is serious enough that members of the Trump administration have considered incentivizing births. That has not made U.S. women more willing, however.
Numbers have fallen across our region. Pennsylvania’s rate in 2023 stood at 51.9 births per 1,000 women, down from 61 in 2007. West Virginia’s rate of 53.1 births per 1,000 women in 2023 was down from 63.2 in 2007.
State officials have to make this kind of population data part of their planning. It affects everything: Education, health care, workforce, housing … everything.
The Pew Charitable Trust researchers who wrote the report said, “State policymakers must reckon with the question of how best to navigate lower fertility rates and related fiscal impacts.”
This is not something to be ignored. Smaller numbers of working adults will eventually reduce not just the workforce, but the tax base and, therefore, state revenue.
According to Pew, reasons for the decline in births are varied. Many of the reasons involve money, such as financial woes — maybe even related to student loan debt — housing and childcare costs, and simply different ambitions for families, such as higher education goals and career success.
It’s not hard to understand why some are making a different choice than perhaps was made by earlier generations. What is more challenging is figuring out how (or whether) to try to do something to reverse the trend and how to prepare for how it will very likely affect our state and federal financial health.
The time to start working on such challenges is now.
Waiting to tackle it later could be a major mistake, indeed.