Commission could draw new Congressional districts

Unless lawmakers can reach bipartisan accord

Redistricting in Ohio could bring big changes that might make Congressional races more competitive next year and loosen the grip Republicans have in the state.

Drawing new lines for U.S. House districts happens every 10 years after each census, but this year will be different.

The new district map will have to be approved by a bipartisan vote of Ohio lawmakers, or an appointed commission will do the work.

A new map must be ready in time for next year's elections.

The requirement that they be approved by a bipartisan vote is new, designed to diminish the practice of gerrymandering.

That enabled lawmakers of the dominant party to draw up maps that served their interests and disadvantaged the opposition party.

The Ohio Republican Party appears to have been the big winner the last 10 years, with the current map being carved out based on voter behavior grouped with conservative majorities while splitting up populations that are more likely to vote Democrat. Gerrymandering is a practice both parties employ, whenever they can.

Ohio will likely lose seats in the U.S. House based upon this census. There are 16 Congressional districts now, but the state's population isn't growing as fast as populations in other states. Those states with faster growing populations will gain seats. It's not known yet what will happen in Ohio.

"I think it's almost certain we're going to lose one district," said Thomas Sutton, a political scientist at Baldwin Wallace University. "I don't think we'll lose two as we did 10 years ago."

The redistricting process is likely to play out over months. Here are three things to know:

¯ More bipartisan: In 2018, voters in Ohio by an overwhelming majority approved a new way to draw Congressional and state district maps. Under the new system, state lawmakers must draw up proposed district lines and then hold public hearings. A vote in the Ohio General Assembly follows.

If the vote to approve the new district map is bipartisan (at least half of Republicans and half of Democrats must support it), the new districts go into effect for 10 years. If it isn't bipartisan, the Ohio Redistricting Commission has to draw a new map by Oct. 31, and try to approve it by a bipartisan vote of the commission's members.

If all efforts to achieve a bipartisan compromise fail, new district boundaries can be drawn by the majority party, but those new districts are authorized for just four years, not 10.

Under the new system, House districts cannot be drawn so that they "unduly" favor one party or the other.

Ohio's 16 House seats are currently held by 12 Republicans and four Democrats. While the state has trended GOP in recent years, the numbers appear to also reflect Republican gerrymandering efforts to maximize the party's hold over the delegation.

¯ More compact: Under the new process, districts are supposed to become more compact and attempt to represent specific areas.

Instead of long districts that stretch across much of the state and that split up communities, the new districts are supposed to avoid splitting counties, townships and cities into different districts whenever possible.

For example, Erie County now has two U.S. House districts, neither of which could be called compact. U.S. Rep. Marcy Kaptur's "snake on the lake" 9th District runs along much of the Lake Erie coast, from Toledo to Cleveland. U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan's 4th District includes southern Erie County and winds down and west, through much of the middle of the state from Lorain County to near the Indiana border.

"Given (it is) part of the 'snake on the lake,' I would bet half of my bank account that district would disappear," Sutton said.

In addition, new rules appear to make it possible Erie County will be represented by one U.S. House member, not two.

Under the new system, five counties can be split into three districts, 18 counties can be split into two, but 65 counties cannot be split at all.

This has been thought to mean that only counties with a large population, such as Cuyahoga County, should be divided into more than one Congressional district. The rules seem to suggest that rural counties such as Erie County and Hancock County are unlikely to be split. Hancock is the 34th-biggest county in population, while Erie County ranks 35th.

Jefferson County, meanwhile, is the 37th largest county in population, while Harrison County is 84th. Columbiana County is 26th, Belmont County is 36th and Carroll County is 79th.

Much of Eastern Ohio sits in Ohio's 6th Congressional District, which is made up of 18 counties -- all of Jefferson, Belmont, Columbiana, Harrison, Carroll, Gallia, Guernsey, Jackson, Lawrence, Meigs, Monroe, Noble and Washington counties -- and portions of five others -- Athens, Mahoning, Muskingum, Scioto and Tuscarawas counties.

U.S. Rep. Bill Johnson, R-Marietta, in November was re-elected to his sixth term representing that district.

¯ State districts redrawn, too: The census results also will be reflected in new boundary lines for Ohio Senate and Ohio House districts.

Jefferson and Harrison counties are in Ohio's 30th Senate Distict, which includes all of Belmont, Carroll, Meigs, Monroe, Noble and Washington counties and parts of Athens and Vinton counties. State Sen. Frank Hoagland, R-Mingo Junction, was re-elected to his second term in November.

In the state House, Jefferson County is part of Ohio's 96th House District, which includes all of Belmont County and a portion of Monroe County. Ron Ferguson, a Republican from Wintersville, won the seat in November. He replaced Jack Cera, a Democrat from Bellaire, who was prohibited from seeking re-election by term-limits.

¯ Here is a bonus fourth point: One of the most interesting races next year is expected to be the race for the U.S. Senate. U.S. Sen. Rob Portman announced Monday he won't seek re-election, creating a race for an open seat.

Redistricting will not affect that race, however, as contests for the U.S. Senate are held statewide.

(Jackson is a staff writer with the Sandusky Register. The Herald-Star staff contrbuted to this report.)